Josip Ilicic - The Skilled Giant
A man with the body of Peter Crouch and the ball control of Neymar.
When talking about the best playmakers of the last few years, most people will mention players like Neymar, Messi, De Bruyne, etc… The list goes on, yet almost no one bats an eye on a particular Slovenian.
Let me present you, Josip Ilicic.
Career summary
The origins
The start of Ilicic’s career was full of twists and turns. After being forced to play reserve with his club for no apparent reason, Josip already considered retiring from the sport. Luckily for him, the team of NK Maribor was interested in his qualities and brought him into the team.
Fast forward a few weeks later and Ilicic was playing Europa League qualification playoffs against Palermo. Performing well in the two legs, the Sicilian club bought him straight away in a pure Ronaldo to United fashion. All of these events happened in the summer of 2010 when Ilicic was 22 years old.
Confirmation in Italy
Ilicic’s first season in Italy was a real success and despite receiving offers from high prestige clubs like AC Milan, Ilicic decided to stay in Palermo for a few more seasons. He finally left in the summer of 2013 for Fiorentina when the club got relegated for poor team performances despite Ilicic’s individual brilliance.
After a complicated first season in Florence, Ilicic refound form and performed greatly in the three following seasons. Josip ended up leaving for the promising Atalanta team in 2017 as he was slowly becoming an established Serie A player.
The Slovenian reached his peak in Atalanta, taking the mid-table club to three straight 3rd place finishes in the league. His time in Bergamo made him gain an entirely new status as one of the best players in the world, especially during the COVID-19 break.
Role
Despite his giant stature of 6’3 (1,90 meters), Josip Ilicic is not a defender nor a target man, he is a dynamic playmaker. Ilicic generally operates from the right even though he is tactically versatile and can play a multitude of roles. He mainly plays on the right of the 3-4-3 frontline he barely plays from the touchline, and mainly receives from the half-spaces. Josip also often drops deep in the buildup to help the midfield despite his highly progressive mentality.
Ilicic is at his best when given the main role of a team, he is a star player. Responsible for the entire game flow of the team just like Messi at Barcelona or Hazard at Chelsea. However, it doesn’t mean that he can’t share the pitch with other ball-demanding players because profiles such as Papu Gomez, Javier Pastore, or Frederico Bernardeschi all flourished next to Josip as he is capable of playing as an offensive receiver too when needed.
The picture below shows the classic Ilicic pass reception in the right half-space, back to goal dropping to receive with the objective of progressing the ball by himself. The 3-4-3 shape of Atalanta is present.
All the data presented in the following part of the article will consider league matches only unless stated otherwise.
Abilities
Final impact
Ball striking
Josip Ilicic has scored 60 non-penalty goals from 47.1 xG since 2014/15 according to Understat, a 28% over-performance. He is a remarkable ball striker from all angles, whether taken from his right or left foot, as he overperforms his xG from both.
Striker work
Despite being known for his playmaking skills, Atalanta’s free-flowing setup allowed Ilicic to showcase his great attacking positioning skills and sometimes to even take the role of a receiver instead of a passer. Since 2017/18, Ilicic has received a total of 12.6 progressive passes p90, an amount only beat by Mbappé (13.8) and Muller (12.8). It is insane for a deep playmaker to be challenging the likes of Mbappé in reception frequency.
His box movement is also very good as he can find himself at the end of cut-backs quite easily. Ilicic possesses the natural instincts of a classic poacher despite being a playmaker. Unique.
Final pass
Josip has recorded a total of 48.5 xA at a rate of 0.32 p90 since 2014/15. However, his most memorable season in term of final passing was in 2020/21 where he recorded expected assists at a rate of 0.64 per ninety according to Understat, more than anyone else in the top 5 leagues.
The classic Ilicic assist is a run from the right wing and from there he either cuts inside early to make a through-ball or stays wide before cutting it back. Almost 50% of Ilicic’s open-play assists were preceded by a successful dribble and nearly all of them are preceded by a ball carry.
As you can see on the map below, a good part of his assists also come from free-kicks and corners. His passing quality allows him to create many goalscoring opportunities from dead-balls.
Ball progression
Josip Ilicic has made 262 direct goal contributions (159 goals, 92 assists) in 598 career games (0.42 per game) all competitions considered. While this ratio does not look too bad, especially considering that he didn’t always play the full 90 minutes and was unlucky with assists, it is certainly not impressive for a player of the caliber presented so far.
This is because Ilicic’s final impact is only a part of his contribution… there is far more.
Ball carrying
Josip Ilicic is a superb dribbler, his ball touch is second to none despite his height (6’3). During his peak (2017/18-2020/21) he completed 260 dribbles at a rate of 3.18 p90 according to Whoscored. For reference, that is a higher rate than Dybala 2015-2019 (2.98), Iniesta 2009-2013 (2.74), and Mané 2017-2021 (2.13 ), who are all regarded as some of the best dribblers of our generation.
Ilicic’s dribbling numbers are a complete anomaly for his height. The graph I created below shows how he is far above the trendline, dribbling almost as often as Messi despite being 8 inches taller.
His former teammate Pastore had good things to say about Ilicic’s ball touch:
“Ilicic is a virtuoso, an entertainer, a player that people want to watch.” - Javier Pastore, 2013
However, Ilicic has quite a low dribble completion rate in his Serie A career, standing at 53.7%. It is mainly due to his mentality of always looking for progression and playing a high-risk/high-reward style while trying difficult dribbles, similar to a player like Kevin De Bruyne having a low passing % rate.
Ilicic loves to receive the ball at his feet to dictate the play of the team. The combination of his majestic ball control and natural physique allows him to run past defenses flawlessly. Since 2017/18, Josip Ilicic accumulated positive xT from carries at a rate of 0.10 p90 as per Soccerment. A frequency only beat by Messi (0.13), Neymar (0.11), and Hazard (0.11). Good company.
Passing
As a playmaker, Ilicic possesses a highly diverse style of passing and great imagination. Through balls, switches, quick plays, crosses, the list goes on. This quality allows him to be unpredictable and play through many setups. It’s a reason why he was able to always produce great performances for numerous teams.
Ilicic’s long-ball technique is also quite special. He manages to play extremely fast medium/high balls in the feet of the receiver that almost never get covered by defenses. He mainly uses this technique for through balls in crowded areas, here is an example (also preceded by a great space creation thanks to his dribbling) :
Since 2017/18, Ilicic has accumulated 14.5 xT from passes at a rate of 0.16 p90 (Soccerment), a frequency only surpassed by Messi (0.21) and Neymar (0.17), generational players. That threat from passes comes from his hunger for directness and improvisation that allows him to be a massive net positive at every possession. The pitch map from WyScout below shows his progressive passes (white lines) and runs (black lines) from last season. It shows the high number of switches and penalty area entries.
Resume of main attributes
Qualities
++ dribbling/carrying
++ passing
+ ball-striking
+ flair
Flaws
- ball retention
- defensive effort
Overall contribution
Josip Ilicic, as presented below, is an extremely complete footballer who can do any attacking gig on the pitch. His overall xT value combining both passes and carries this time stands at +0.26 p90 since 2017/18 (Soccerment), as always only outscored by Messi (0.33) and Neymar (0.28). He is one of the best playmakers of the decade and his 2019/20 season rivals with some of the all-time greats.
StatsBomb has built a model called On-Ball Value (OBV) which calculates the overall contribution of a player while valuing a multitude of different actions like shooting, an attribute that xT doesn’t value. According to the model, the 6 best seasons from the 2016/17-2020/21 period are shared between the current PSG trio of Messi, Mbappé, and Neymar. However, the 7th spot is taken by Josip Ilicic in the 2019/20 season, just below Messi’s 2021 Ballon d’Or winning season.
Ilicic is capable of pure playmaking masterclasses, since 2017/18, he holds the record for the most shot-creating actions (the last two offensive actions directly leading to a shot) in one single game with 24 against Empoli in 2018/19 (FBref), completely dominating that right half-space. For information, he didn’t register a single goal or assist in this match.
Why isn’t he rated highly?
Josep Ilicic possesses a unique combination of factors that make it easy for the average football fan to underrate him :
Never won a single trophy since the Slovenian cup in 2009.
Never played in a big club nor in a mediatized league.
Never played in a single European Championship or World Cup.
Didn’t get a high amount of goals.
Doesn’t always look that good on the eye for some people due to his height.
Peaked at a late age so he doesn't get talked much about for transfers.
Ilicic is a mysterious player, affected by depression that almost ended his career on 3 separate occasions (2009, 2020, and 2022). Fragile mental health has been a recurring problem in Ilicic’s career since losing his father at a very young age in the Yugoslav Wars.
“We will always be close to Josip, these are situations that go beyond football and we have always had a relationship with him with very happy situations.” - Gianpiero Gasperini, 2022
He has never played a large amount of minutes through a season either due to injury problems but mainly for the benefit of Atalanta’s high rotation managing style.
Josip is a very humble player who doesn’t talk much on media, doesn’t have Twitter, and is barely active on Instagram. He is the type of player to go on the pitch to play his football and nothing else.
Many factors have made Ilicic a non-interesting player for fans and media. Even if there was some interest after his 4 goals against Villareal just before the COVID-19 break, the hype died pretty quickly the following year.
Conclusion
For me, what Ilicic managed between 2018 and 2021 is extremely close to Messi/Neymar level performances, taking the absolute main role of a team demanding from midfield and destroying the final third. There is a clear before and after Ilicic for Atalanta. For example, the results of the Bergamasque club drastically declined after Ilicic’s depression last season going from 4th place in January to 8th place at the end of the season. While plain team results are never enough to show a player’s impact, Ilicic’s qualities have already been presented and it’s easy to see how much he can impact a team.
Not the most consistent player there is, but based on pure performance level he is capable of doing things only the all-time greats can afford to.
Maybe Josip Ilicic is an all-time great himself?
nice article man, really detailed just like you twitter threads. I remember first watching Ilicic in the game vs Valencia when he scored a poker and the goal where he took a couple of long strides to hit the ball first time really stuck to me since then. Really unlucky he suffered from depression but nevertheless, he remains a player who leaves a distinct mark on the game.
Ive got a blog myself, a part of which is for football articles - https://krishna-kant.com/football/ , do check it out if you wish.
Also, I'd be glad to help you on any future articles.
Excelent work, man!!